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Extra resources for Inc. Magazine (April 2012)
For example, economists might discover from their visits to the Federal Reserve in Washington that there are two or three favourite cyclical indicators followed by senior policy-making officials. They might also sense that the Chairman (of the Federal Reserve) has a ‘hang-up’ about the budget deficit – meaning that he/she considers changes in the long-run stance of fiscal policy as an important factor when determining the optimum monetary course to follow. Similarly the economist who makes a journey every six months to the Bundesbank, meeting a range of high-up officials there, could form a view on their likely range of responses to new problems as they arise and their commitment to any particular theoretical approach.
Most dramatically, in a currency crisis all market participants realize that official statements of support are automatic, but may lack total substance. The trained crisis-analyst looks for what is not said. 25 per cent), the French Prime Minister threatened to resign ‘if the parity is changed’ (but, of course, the parity could remain unchanged, and an effective devaluation occur via a widening of the bands). ). And then from M. Chirac, the head of the Gaullist Party (the bigger partner in the French Coalition government), ‘I am behind the policies to defend the franc’ (but in terms of what, and did he mean the external or internal 35 SO WHAT IS NEW?
Economists advising investors on market strategy might well do better operating outside the Castle, studying forces which are larger than the policymakers, rather than exploring within. An example illustrates the point. The economist who is skilled in monetary analysis might form a view that the Federal Reserve is making a big error in monetary policy – for example, being lulled by some weakness in presently available US economic indicators into underestimating inflation risks. The economist might point to a bigger picture of the economy operating virtually at full stretch despite the latest blip, and argue that a still rapid money supply and credit growth herald inflation danger which is maybe only six months away.
Inc. Magazine (April 2012)